Cheney Town Hall Meeting

[andysocial]

After reading about the massive job growth in July, it's especially amusing to hear the Vice President talking about how strong the economy is today. A quick quote that sums up the disconnect between job growth that is 110,000 people fewer than population growth for the month and where the administration lives:

I would have to conclude -- and I think it's a fair judgment -- that the economy is back on track, is headed in the right direction.

Which direction is that? The stock market has fallen to a new low for the year, employment has no chance to reach the same level it was when Bush took office, and oil is at an all-time high with no sign of falling. Great direction.

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Comments

[visgoth.livejournal.com]

Month-to-month job growth tells exactly dick about the strength of the economy.

It's like claiming that the displacement of an engine tells you how well a vehicle will do in a race. Without knowing the vehicle weight, delivered horsepower, gearing, drag coefficient, and a whole host of other things, it's just a number.

The same goes for the various numbers used by both sides to "prove" their case that the economy is "strong" or "weak." Two, three, or even six indicators aren't going to come close to revealing the truth.

Manufacturing is down? So what? We live in a service economy. Manufacturing is up? So what? We live in a service economy.

Stock market is down? So? All that means is that people aren't buying stocks. Maybe they're putting down-payments on houses. Maybe they're taking their profits and going into business for themselves. Maybe they're paying tuition. Maybe they're going into bonds because it's retirement time. Stock market is up? So? Your stock is functionally valueless until the day you sell it. The money your portfolio is "worth" is imaginary, so long as you don't have a buyer.

What it all boils down to is if your paycheck gets you more or less than it did one, two, or four years ago. If it gets more, for you the economy is good. If it gets you less, for you the economy is bad. (Discounting things like retirement...)

For me, the economy is kicking 31 flavors of ass, and jotting their names down in gold leaf on a platinum tablet.

For my older sister, the economy is sleeping in a washer box in a damp alley, dreaming of finding a dead rat to gnaw on.

[andysocial]

Obviously the economy is more complex than each statistic taken in isolation. But, the current administration likes to talk about job growth, when economist say adding 140,000 jobs per month is just sustainment and we've averaged less than that during the past 3 years. So, if you're going to
trumpet things as achievements, maybe you should actually achieve something.

On a personal scale, the economy is completely stagnant for the past three years. My pay has basically kept pace with inflation, but that's all I actually expect for the present. Meanwhile, I know personally many people whose current income is not keeping pace with inflation, and only a very few who are beating it. But that's anecdotal, not useful for an argument outside of this particular small group.

Furthermore, regardless of how strong the economy is or isn't, the most important thing to the politicians making these pronouncements is how strong people perceive the economy. Like it or not, the indicators easiest to digest and therefore most referred to include job growth (or lack of it in this case) and stock market numbers. Price of oil gets an awful lot of press, which is sad because we could be nearly oil-independent if the folks with money made it a priority (Sadly, I have no money but we do our part with what we have).